Polymarket Signal Accuracy — Live Track Record
ProbBrain publishes Polymarket signals daily and tracks every call. This page shows our live accuracy, Brier score, calibrated estimate vs. market price, win/loss outcomes, and category breakdowns for every published signal — updated every 2 hours.
Performance Overview
Published to X
79
analyzed: 131
Resolved
72
91% of total
Accuracy
55.6%
40/72 correct
Brier Score
0.289
vs 0.25 random baseline
Streak
-2
loss streak
Resolving Soon
published signals nearest to their close date
SIG-047 · geopolitics
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA VI releases?
SIG-048 · crypto
Will Bitcoin hit $1M before GTA VI?
SIG-113 · sports
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
SIG-033 · politics
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
SIG-035 · politics
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Signal Log
1–10 of 131
| # | Market | Direction | Market vs Ours | Drift | Gap | Confidence | Status | Resolved | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #140 | Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? crypto | ▼ Bet NO | 72%/35% | 13.7pp | HIGH | ◕ PENDING | — | 2028-01-01 | |
| #139 🕶 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 76%/63% | 13.3pp | HIGH | ☀ SHADOW | — | 2026-12-31 | |
| #138 🕶 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 78%/71% | 6.0pp | LOW | ✗ LOSS | 2026-06-18 | 2026-12-31 | |
| #137 | Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? crypto | ▼ Bet NO | 79%/40% | 14.5pp | HIGH | ◕ PENDING | — | 2028-01-01 | |
| #136 🕶 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 28%/20% | 8.0pp | HIGH | ☀ SHADOW | — | 2026-12-31 | |
| #135 🕶 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 26%/21% | 5.3pp | LOW | ☀ SHADOW | — | 2026-12-31 | |
| #134 🕶 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 65%/63% | 2.3pp | LOW | ✓ WIN | 2026-06-21 | 2026-06-30 | |
| #133 🕶 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 74%/72% | 1.8pp | LOW | ☀ SHADOW | — | 2026-07-31 | |
| #132 🕶 | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 34%/30% | 4.3pp | LOW | ✓ WIN | 2026-06-01 | 2026-05-31 | |
| #131 🕶 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? geopolitics | ▼ Bet NO | 30%/21% | 8.4pp | HIGH | ✗ LOSS | 2026-06-18 | 2026-05-31 |
…
By Category
geopolitics
46resolved
25correct
54%accuracy
sports
8resolved
4correct
50%accuracy
politics
10resolved
7correct
70%accuracy
business
0resolved
0correct
—accuracy
general
3resolved
1correct
33%accuracy
crypto
1resolved
1correct
100%accuracy
commodities
2resolved
1correct
50%accuracy
other
1resolved
0correct
0%accuracy
finance
0resolved
0correct
—accuracy
science
0resolved
0correct
—accuracy
culture
1resolved
1correct
100%accuracy