SIG-137 crypto PENDING

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2028-01-01

Market price

79%

at signal

Our estimate

40%

calibrated

Gap

+14.5pp

market vs ours

Status

PENDING

2028-01-01 close

Market price history

Evidence

This is a laddered FDV market where outcomes are nested thresholds; in the same event the '>$50M' tier trades ~85-93% and the '>$100M' tier trades ~63%.
By monotonicity, P(FDV>$200M) must be strictly less than P(FDV>$100M)=63%, so any price of 79% for the $200M threshold is logically inconsistent and overpriced.
Predict.fun has NOT yet launched a token as of June 2026 (points-farming campaign began Dec 2025; TGE still TBA), so the launch FDV is unresolved and genuinely uncertain.
Comparable BNB-chain / prediction-market token launches and the crowd's own descending tier prices imply a $200M+ launch FDV is closer to a coin-flip-or-less, not ~80%.
Extrapolating the descending tier curve ($50M~85-93%, $100M~63%) places the $200M tier in the ~35-45% range, ~39pp below the quoted 0.79.

Counter-evidence

The supplied 0.790 price may be a stale or mislabeled snapshot that doesn't reflect the live ladder, and a strongly hyped, YZi-Labs-backed launch could spike FDV above $200M.