SIG-136 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31

Market price

28%

at signal

Our estimate

20%

calibrated

Gap

+8.0pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-12-31 close

Market price history

Evidence

Base rate for formal peace treaties ending active interstate wars within ~7 months is very low; most wars end via ceasefire/armistice or frozen conflict, not signed peace deals, and major-power wars (Korea, Kashmir, etc.) often go decades without formal treaties.
Core positions remain irreconcilable: Russia demands recognition of annexed territories (Crimea + 4 oblasts) and Ukrainian neutrality; Ukraine's constitution requires territorial integrity and a referendum for any territorial concession, making a signed deal politically and legally near-impossible in 217 days.
Even if a ceasefire or framework agreement is reached under U.S. pressure in 2026, Polymarket's resolution typically requires an actual signed peace deal — interim ceasefires, truces, or partial agreements would resolve NO.
Heavy fighting and active offensives continued into 2026, with neither side near collapse; negotiating posture (maximalist demands, ongoing strikes) is inconsistent with imminent signed settlement.
Market is thin-to-moderate ($997k volume) and has been persistently bid up by headline-driven retail optimism around Trump-era diplomacy, a known overpricing pattern on long-shot geopolitical YES contracts on Polymarket.

Counter-evidence

Active U.S.-brokered negotiations and Russian battlefield/economic strain could plausibly produce a framework deal in 2026, and a loosely-worded resolution could count partial agreements as YES.