SIG-133 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-07-31

Market price

74%

at signal

Our estimate

72%

calibrated

Gap

+1.8pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-07-31 close

Market price history

Evidence

Strait of Hormuz traffic disruptions are typically tied to Iran-Israel-US tensions; resolution criteria depend on the market's specific definition of 'normal'
Market at 74% with ~$988K volume suggests reasonably liquid price discovery on a geopolitically sensitive question
68-day window is moderately long, giving time for de-escalation or further disruption
Without access to current shipping traffic data (Lloyd's List, TankerTrackers, MarineTraffic) I cannot independently verify baseline vs current throughput
Historical pattern: Hormuz disruptions have generally resolved within weeks-to-months as Iran avoids closing its own oil export route

Counter-evidence

If active kinetic conflict or mining incidents are ongoing, the 26% NO probability may underprice tail risk of prolonged disruption through July.