SIG-135 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-12-31

Market price

26%

at signal

Our estimate

21%

calibrated

Gap

+5.3pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-12-31 close

Market price history

Evidence

Physical transfer of enriched uranium from Iran to the US would require either a comprehensive diplomatic deal or military seizure — both are high-bar outcomes historically rare
Iran has consistently refused to surrender its enriched stockpile in all prior negotiations including JCPOA (which only diluted/exported low-enriched material, not full surrender to US)
219-day window is short for negotiating, ratifying, and physically executing uranium transfer logistics including IAEA verification chains
Market at 26.5% likely already prices in tail scenarios (military strike + seizure, regime collapse, surprise deal); my estimate around 15% suggests only ~11pp gap, below 20pp threshold
No public reporting of active US-Iran uranium handover negotiations as of knowledge cutoff; would need real-time intelligence to justify HIGH confidence either direction

Counter-evidence

If recent military action (e.g., 2025 Israel/US strikes on Iranian facilities) resulted in captured material or coerced concessions, the market price could be reasonable or even underpricing YES.