SIG-138
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
78%
at signal
Our estimate
71%
calibrated
Gap
+6.0pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Resolution rules require an explicitly PERMANENT end to US-Iran hostilities; the deal closest to signing is a 60-day MOU extending the ceasefire and launching nuclear talks, which the rules explicitly disqualify as temporary (polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by).
- On June 11 Trump cancelled scheduled strikes and posted that the deal was 'approved by the highest level of Iranian leadership' with a signing time/place to be announced, possibly this weekend — strong near-term momentum supporting the high YES price (timesofisrael.com/liveblog-june-11-2026, cnn.com/2026/06/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel-hnk).
- Iran has NOT confirmed: a senior Iranian official said no MOU or framework has been agreed, and the IRGC cast doubt on Trump's 'final points approved' claim; Israel was reportedly not looped in (abcnews.com live updates, ms.now/liveblog/iran-news-trump-israel-war-june-11-2026).
- Track record of false dawns is severe: CNN counted at least 38 separate Trump claims of an imminent deal between March 23 and June 9, and active hostilities resumed as recently as June 10 with 49 Tomahawks fired and Iranian strikes on US bases (aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/7/how-many-times-were-the-us-and-iran-on-the-verge-of-a-deal, washingtonexaminer.com).
- The 202-day window is generous: even if the imminent signing is only the temporary MOU, both sides' war exhaustion, the $24B frozen-asset and Hormuz-reopening incentives, and Qatari/Pakistani mediation breakthroughs give multiple paths to a qualifying permanent deal before December 31 (axios.com/2026/05/28/iran-peace-deal-trump-approval, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire).
Counter-evidence
- If the settlement Trump teases for this weekend is signed with language 'clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities,' the market resolves YES almost immediately and 77.5% would prove cheap rather than expensive.