SIG-126
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-31
Market price
22%
at signal
Our estimate
16%
calibrated
Gap
+5.6pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-05-31 close
Evidence
- There is no publicly acknowledged US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — the US Navy patrols the region but a formal 'blockade' is an act of war that hasn't been officially declared.
- For YES to resolve, Trump must personally announce the lifting of such a blockade within 17 days, requiring two improbable events: existence of the blockade as Trump-recognized policy AND its explicit termination announcement.
- Iran's primary oil export route runs through Hormuz; a US blockade would spike oil prices globally — no such sustained price shock is currently visible in commodity markets.
- Even in scenarios where US increases pressure on Iran, Trump's typical rhetoric emphasizes 'maximum pressure' continuation rather than de-escalation announcements on this specific 17-day window.
- Polymarket bracket-style 'may 31' deadline questions on specific Trump announcements historically resolve NO at very high rates (~95%+) when requiring a narrow verbal trigger in a short window.
Counter-evidence
- If the market is interpreting 'blockade' loosely to include any naval enforcement posture that Trump could declare ended, ambiguous wording could pull resolution probability above a pure base rate.