SIG-125
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
21%
at signal
Our estimate
20%
calibrated
Gap
+1.4pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- In 2024-2025 Israel struck targets in multiple countries (Gaza/Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, Iraq), showing a 6-country year is empirically possible.
- Resolution depends on strict counting rules (what qualifies as a 'strike', whether territories count as countries) which create ambiguity that the market has likely priced in.
- With 231 days remaining and an active regional posture, tail risk of additional strikes (e.g., Houthi-related in Yemen, Iran, Syria) is non-trivial.
- Volume of $635k is moderate but sufficient to incorporate consensus geopolitical analyst views; a 21% price reflects genuine uncertainty rather than obvious mispricing.
- I lack ground-truth on Israel's 2026 YTD strike count by country, which is the single most important input — without it, any estimate is speculative.
Counter-evidence
- If Israel has already struck 4-5 countries in 2026 YTD, the market would be significantly underpricing YES and 21% would be too low.