SIG-122
finance
PENDING
Ledger IPO before 2027?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
21%
at signal
Our estimate
3%
calibrated
Gap
+5.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- No S-1 or confidential filing has been disclosed by Ledger as of 2026-05; an IPO before 2026-12-31 would require filing imminently given typical 4-6 month SEC review windows.
- Ledger is a French private company (SAS) — a US IPO would require corporate restructuring/redomiciliation, adding months of legal work that has not been publicly reported.
- CEO Pascal Gauthier publicly stated in 2024-2025 interviews that Ledger was not prioritizing an IPO and was focused on profitability and product (Ledger Stax, Recover) rather than a listing.
- Last funding round (Series C extension, ~$108M at $1.4B valuation in 2023) is still recent; crypto hardware peers (Trezor, BitBox) remain private with no listing momentum in the sector.
- Base rate: <5% of private fintech/crypto firms with no filed S-1 by mid-year complete an IPO in the same calendar year; current crypto IPO pipeline (Circle, Kraken rumors) does not include Ledger.
Counter-evidence
- A surprise confidential filing or acquisition-via-SPAC could materialize in H2 2026 given the post-ETF crypto bull market reopening IPO windows.