SIG-121 politics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-12-31

Market price

80%

at signal

Our estimate

75%

calibrated

Gap

+4.1pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-12-31 close

Evidence

Starmer's Labour government has faced significant polling collapse and internal party pressure through 2025-2026
UK PMs can be removed mid-term via party leadership challenge without a general election, lowering the bar for 'out'
233 days is a long window allowing multiple trigger events (no-confidence, resignation, leadership challenge)
Market volume of $1.6M suggests reasonable liquidity and price discovery
Without current polling, leadership challenge rules status, and specific recent political events, I cannot verify a 20pp mispricing

Counter-evidence

Incumbent PMs with large majorities like Starmer's typically survive party challenges absent a specific catalyst, and 79.5% may already correctly price in known risks.