SIG-120 politics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2027-01-01

Market price

78%

at signal

Our estimate

77%

calibrated

Gap

+1.5pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2027-01-01 close

Evidence

CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support, establishing CFTC/SEC jurisdictional split for crypto assets
Senate Banking and Agriculture committees have been working on companion legislation throughout late 2025 and into 2026
Trump administration publicly supports crypto market structure legislation as a 2026 priority, providing strong executive tailwind
234 days until close (Jan 1 2027) provides ample runway for Senate passage and signing if momentum continues
Market at 78.5% with $658K volume reflects informed consensus; no specific catalyst or blocker visible that would justify >20pp deviation

Counter-evidence

Senate legislative calendars frequently slip, election-year politics could delay floor time, and stablecoin (GENIUS) priorities may crowd out CLARITY — risks the market may be underweighting.