SIG-118 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Direction YES underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-06-30

Market price

21%

at signal

Our estimate

23%

calibrated

Gap

+1.7pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-06-30 close

Evidence

Market at 21% implies ~79% probability a qualifying meeting occurs by June 30, 2026, suggesting traders see active diplomatic engagement likely
US-Iran nuclear/diplomatic talks have been an on-and-off pattern under multiple administrations with frequent restart cycles
51-day window is short — any unresolved tensions, election cycles, or regional escalation could derail meetings
Resolution criteria for 'qualifying' meeting (likely cabinet-level or formal) is strict and ambiguous without source text
Without access to current news on scheduled or ongoing US-Iran contacts in May-June 2026, I cannot verify market consensus

Counter-evidence

Market price of 21% is informed by $779K volume and likely reflects real-time public knowledge of scheduled or ongoing diplomatic tracks I cannot independently verify.