SIG-117 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Direction YES underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-05-15

Market price

78%

at signal

Our estimate

79%

calibrated

Gap

+0.6pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-05-15 close

Market price history

Evidence

US-Iran nuclear talks have been ongoing through 2025-2026 via Omani mediation, with multiple rounds already conducted
Market closes 2026-05-15, only 6 days away, with resolution by June 30 giving ~7 weeks total window
78.5% implies high market conviction, suggesting a meeting is either already scheduled or strongly expected
Resolution criteria ambiguity (what counts as 'diplomatic meeting' - direct vs indirect, level of officials) creates uncertainty I cannot resolve without reading market rules
Volume of $617K is moderate but not exceptional, suggesting fair price discovery rather than thin-market mispricing

Counter-evidence

If 'diplomatic meeting' requires direct senior-level face-to-face contact (not via Omani intermediaries), the true probability could be materially lower than 78.5%, but I lack specific evidence on the resolution criteria.