SIG-115
commodities
PENDING
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-01
Market price
20%
at signal
Our estimate
2%
calibrated
Gap
+5.9pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-06-01 close
Market price history
Evidence
- WTI has been trading in the $60-75 range in 2026; reaching $120 requires ~60-90% appreciation in 23 days
- Historical precedent: only the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion shock and 2008 spike pushed WTI above $120, both required major geopolitical/supply disruptions
- OPEC+ has spare capacity and has been managing supply; no current production crisis suggests imminent price doubling
- Implied volatility on WTI options does not price in a >50% upside move within ~3 weeks at anything close to 20%
- Even during recent Middle East tensions (Iran/Israel escalations), WTI peaks have stayed well below $100
Counter-evidence
- A sudden major supply shock — e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure, direct strike on Saudi/Gulf oil infrastructure, or Russia-NATO escalation — could spike WTI rapidly toward $120.