SIG-112
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-15
Market price
20%
at signal
Our estimate
14%
calibrated
Gap
+5.7pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-05-15 close
Market price history
Evidence
- There is no publicly known active US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as of early May 2026; US posture in the Gulf is freedom-of-navigation patrols, not a blockade.
- A 'lifting' announcement is conditional on a blockade existing first — absent that predicate, the YES resolution requires both imposition and removal within 6 days.
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz unilaterally by the US would spike oil prices and trigger massive market dislocations; no such shock is visible in Brent/WTI consistent with an active blockade.
- Trump-administration messaging has emphasized pressure on Iran via sanctions, not a US-imposed Hormuz blockade; a 'lift' announcement therefore lacks any policy hook.
- Short 6-day window plus low $1.69M volume on a niche conditional question typically leaves residual YES pricing from speculative tail bets, not from genuine probability.
Counter-evidence
- If a covert or recently announced US interdiction operation were quietly framed as a 'blockade' by the question's resolver, a quick de-escalation announcement could resolve YES, but no public reporting supports that scenario.