SIG-109 politics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-06-21

Market price

20%

at signal

Our estimate

20%

calibrated

Gap

+0.2pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-06-21 close

Evidence

Paloma Valencia is a known Centro Democrático senator and a credible right-wing contender for the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
Colombian presidential elections historically feature fragmented multi-candidate fields where front-runners often poll 20-30%, consistent with the 20.5% market price.
The first round is scheduled for May 2026 with a likely runoff in June; a 20.5% implied probability is reasonable for a top-tier but not dominant candidate.
Without access to current verified polling averages or Centro Democrático primary results, I cannot justify a >20pp deviation in either direction.
Market volume of ~$1M and tight pricing suggest active price discovery by informed bettors, reducing likelihood of large mispricing.

Counter-evidence

If Valencia has surged or collapsed in recent polls or won/lost the CD internal consultation, the true probability could diverge sharply, but I lack that specific evidence.