SIG-108
science
PENDING
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
20%
at signal
Our estimate
100%
calibrated
Gap
+6.0pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- No US government agency (DoD, NASA, ODNI, AARO) has ever confirmed extraterrestrial life; AARO's 2024 historical review explicitly found no evidence of ET technology.
- The 2023 Congressional UAP hearings with Grusch produced testimony but zero verifiable government confirmation, and subsequent AARO reports debunked claims.
- Confirming alien existence would be the most consequential announcement in human history — base rate over any 8-month window is effectively zero.
- Resolution requires explicit official US confirmation within ~8 months; even if evidence existed, declassification/disclosure timelines are typically years.
- Polymarket alien/UFO markets historically trade with persistent meme/lottery premiums well above true probability due to small-bettor optionality demand.
Counter-evidence
- Ongoing congressional UAP disclosure pressure and AARO investigations create a nonzero tail probability of a surprise announcement.