SIG-107
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Direction — · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-05-15
Market price
22%
at signal
Our estimate
21%
calibrated
Gap
+0.2pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-05-15 close
Evidence
- Market at 21.5% with $1.36M volume reflects active price discovery on a short 12-day horizon
- US-Iran diplomatic contacts have been intermittent throughout 2025-2026 but no confirmed scheduled meeting by May 15
- Resolution criteria for 'diplomatic meeting' can be ambiguous (direct vs. indirect, level of officials)
- Without insider knowledge of scheduled diplomatic engagements, I cannot justify a >20pp deviation
- Short time horizon (12 days) means the market has likely priced in known scheduled events
Counter-evidence
- If a high-level meeting is publicly announced or leaked in coming days, YES could spike sharply, but I have no such specific signal.