SIG-106 politics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Direction — · Confidence LOW · Closes 2028-11-07

Market price

22%

at signal

Our estimate

21%

calibrated

Gap

+0.5pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2028-11-07 close

Market price history

Evidence

JD Vance is the sitting Vice President under Trump, making him a natural frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination
Historically, sitting VPs win their party's nomination ~50-60% of the time when they seek it, but general election win rates are much lower (~30-40%)
Combined probability: ~50% nomination × ~45% general election conditional on nomination ≈ 20-23%, very close to market
920 days until election means enormous uncertainty: health, scandals, primary challengers, economic conditions all unknown
Market volume of $10.9M indicates reasonably liquid price discovery on a high-profile political question

Counter-evidence

If Trump's second term is highly successful and Vance consolidates the MAGA coalition early, 21.6% could be too low — but this is speculative and not a 20pp edge.