SIG-105 geopolitics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30

Market price

22%

at signal

Our estimate

18%

calibrated

Gap

+3.3pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-06-30 close

Market price history

Evidence

Díaz-Canel is the sitting First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party and President; in single-party authoritarian systems, mid-term leader exits within any given 60-day window have a base rate well under 5%.
No public reporting indicates serious health issues, an active coup attempt, mass elite defection, or scheduled leadership transition before June 30, 2026.
The next scheduled PCC Congress and presidential transition windows fall outside this 60-day horizon — there is no institutional trigger event in the window.
Cuba's economic crisis and protests have persisted for years without dislodging the leadership; chronic stress is already priced into the regime's demonstrated resilience.
Polymarket prices on low-probability authoritarian-ouster markets routinely carry a 10-25% floor due to thin liquidity, hedging, and lottery-ticket bidding, inflating fair value well above the true base rate.

Counter-evidence

An unannounced health emergency, sudden death, or internal Party coup could resolve YES with little warning, and Cuba's compounding economic collapse keeps tail risk non-zero.