SIG-104
geopolitics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-31
Market price
22%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+3.4pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2026-05-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- The word 'permanent' sets an extraordinarily high bar — no formal US-Iran peace treaty has existed since the 1979 revolution, and resolving 47 years of hostility in 30 days is implausible.
- Core disputes (nuclear program, IRGC status, sanctions regime, support for proxies like Hezbollah/Houthis, frozen assets) cannot realistically be settled in a single month even if talks were advanced.
- Even the JCPOA (a limited nuclear deal, not a peace treaty) took years of negotiation; a 'permanent peace deal' is a far more ambitious instrument requiring congressional and Iranian parliamentary ratification.
- Polymarket resolution criteria for 'permanent peace deal' questions typically require a formally signed bilateral treaty or equivalent — interim ceasefires or framework agreements would not qualify.
- Base rate for sudden permanent peace treaties between long-standing adversaries within a 30-day window is effectively zero historically.
Counter-evidence
- If a major surprise diplomatic breakthrough or symbolic 'peace declaration' were signed and the market resolves loosely, YES could spike, but the explicit 'permanent' wording makes this very unlikely.