SIG-101
politics
SHADOW
🕶 SHADOW
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Direction — · Confidence LOW · Closes 2028-11-07
Market price
22%
at signal
Our estimate
22%
calibrated
Gap
+0.1pp
market vs ours
Status
SHADOW
2028-11-07 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Rubio is currently Secretary of State in the Trump administration, giving him high visibility and donor access for a 2028 run.
- Historical base rate for any single named Republican to win a contested open nomination is roughly 15-25%, consistent with the 21.7% market price.
- Vance, DeSantis, and other potential Trump-aligned successors split the field and cap any single candidate's probability.
- 923 days to close means substantial unresolved uncertainty: Rubio has not announced, and the field is not finalized.
- $8.3M volume indicates a reasonably liquid, efficient market unlikely to harbor a 20pp mispricing on a high-profile politician.
Counter-evidence
- If Trump explicitly endorses Rubio as successor or Vance declines to run, Rubio's true probability could jump well above 40%, making YES underpriced.