SIG-100 politics SHADOW 🕶 SHADOW

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence LOW · Closes 2026-12-31

Market price

20%

at signal

Our estimate

17%

calibrated

Gap

+3.4pp

market vs ours

Status

SHADOW

2026-12-31 close

Market price history

Evidence

Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated for a third term in January 2025 and continues to hold power as of the knowledge cutoff.
Delcy Rodríguez is Vice President and a Maduro loyalist, not a designated successor with an imminent transition path.
There is no public indication of Maduro stepping down, dying, or being deposed before end of 2026.
Even in a regime change scenario, the opposition (Edmundo González/María Corina Machado) would be more likely successors than Rodríguez.
Market price of 20.5% likely reflects succession-uncertainty premium plus thin-market noise rather than concrete signal.

Counter-evidence

If Maduro suddenly exits power due to health or internal regime fracture, Rodríguez is among the most plausible insider successors, justifying a non-trivial probability.