SIG-097
geopolitics
WIN
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30 · Resolved 2026-05-01
Market price
28%
at signal
Our estimate
5%
calibrated
Gap
+22.5pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-05-01
Market price history
Evidence
- Ceasefire announced Apr 7 was only 2-week deal via Pakistan mediation, not permanent peace treaty.
- Historical precedent: US-Iran relations hostile since 1979. No diplomatic ties for 45+ years.
- Permanent peace requires: sanctions removal, nuclear deal, recognition - none in active negotiation.
- 9 days until deadline (Apr 30). Treaty drafting alone takes months.
- Iran Supreme Leader has not indicated willingness for permanent normalization with US.
Counter-evidence
- Ceasefire could be extended and framed as "permanent" if fighting doesn't resume.