SIG-096
geopolitics
PENDING
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
32%
at signal
Our estimate
7%
calibrated
Gap
+24.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-06-30 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Houston Public Media (April 17, 2026): Paxton leads Cornyn 48% to 40% among likely GOP primary runoff voters, with 11% undecided
- Emerson College Polling: Paxton consistently polling ahead of Cornyn across multiple surveys since February 2026
- FOX 7 Austin: Paxton has higher favorability among Texas Republicans; leads among men, non-college-educated, Latino, and under-65 voters
- March 3 primary results: Cornyn 41.9%, Paxton 40.7% — runoff triggered; Paxton closed a narrow gap and now leads in runoff polling