SIG-091
commodities
NOT_PUBLISHED
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
4%
at signal
Our estimate
2%
calibrated
Gap
+2.4pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- WTI at $115.21 on April 7. Reaching $200 requires a 74% surge in 23 days — would be the largest single-month percentage move in oil history.
- Even with Kharg Island strikes beginning and Strait blocked 6+ weeks, supply disruption is partially offset by SPR releases, OPEC+ spare capacity, and demand destruction at current prices.
- 1979 Iranian Revolution oil shock: prices doubled over ~6 months, not 3 weeks. 1990 Iraq invasion: $17→$41 (140%) took 3 months.
- At $200/bbl, massive demand destruction kicks in — airlines ground flights, industrial shutdowns, recession forces begin. Self-limiting price dynamics.
- Trump sparing direct strikes on oil export infrastructure until now; even Kharg strikes may target military positions, not tanker loading terminals.