SIG-089
commodities
NOT_PUBLISHED
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
14%
at signal
Our estimate
5%
calibrated
Gap
+8.6pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- WTI at ~$112/bbl. Reaching $160 requires a 43% surge in 23 days — would need catastrophic supply disruption beyond current blockade.
- Trump has deliberately avoided striking oil infrastructure (Kharg Island spared despite 90+ military targets hit on March 13).
- Even 2008 oil spike ($78→$147) took 6 months; 1990 Gulf War spike was $17→$41 over 3 months. $112→$160 in <1 month is historically extreme.
- OPEC+ standing ready to boost output when Strait reopens; strategic petroleum reserves available as buffer.
- Iran infrastructure strikes (power plants, bridges) would be devastating but don't directly remove oil from global market.