SIG-086
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-31
Market price
26%
at signal
Our estimate
10%
calibrated
Gap
+16.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-05-31 close
Evidence
- War on the Rocks (2026-04): 'The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island' — military analysts argue operation logistically infeasible and strategically counterproductive.
- PBS/CNN (2026-03-26): Experts warn Kharg is 21 miles off Iranian mainland; Iran has built up air, naval, and missile defenses around island.
- CNBC (2026-03-16): Attacking Kharg oil infrastructure would remove 1.5-2M bbl/day, sending WTI past $150 — economically devastating for US.
- US struck 90+ military targets on Kharg (March 13) but deliberately spared oil and gas infrastructure — consistent policy of avoiding oil targets.
- No US ground forces inside Iran as of April 6; 82nd Airborne staged in region but no invasion order given.