SIG-085
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
19%
at signal
Our estimate
8%
calibrated
Gap
+11.0pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-06-30 close
Evidence
- CNN (2026-04-03): Iran's 'new' regime looks much the same, only harsher — Mojtaba Khamenei consolidated power with IRGC backing.
- Al Jazeera (2026-04-01): Mojtaba Khamenei's rumoured injury or death won't change Iran's trajectory — institutional design prevents leadership vacuum.
- ECPR (2026-04): Iran's institutional design specifically complicates regime change — power embedded in organizations, not individuals.
- CFR (2026-04): Assembly of Experts activated constitutional succession smoothly after Khamenei assassination.
- Historical base rate: air campaigns alone have never toppled a regime (Iraq 1991, Serbia 1999, Libya required ground intervention).