SIG-084
geopolitics
PENDING
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
26%
at signal
Our estimate
6%
calibrated
Gap
+19.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-06-30 close
Market price history
Evidence
- CNN (2026-04-06): Iran rejected temporary ceasefire proposal; war in 6th week with no end in sight.
- Euronews (2026-04-06): Iran rejects ceasefire as war of words deepens — FM Araghchi refuses direct dialogue with US.
- Arms Control Association (2026-04): US negotiators were ill-prepared for serious nuclear talks even before war began.
- Al Jazeera (2026-03-25): Each side's demands are far apart — US wants full dismantlement, Iran wants sanctions relief first.
- Historical precedent: JCPOA took 2+ years of negotiations (2013-2015) under cooperative conditions; current environment is active war.