SIG-083 geopolitics WIN

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-15

Market price

23%

at signal

Our estimate

13%

calibrated

Gap

+10.0pp

market vs ours

Status

WIN

2026-04-15 close

Evidence

Al Jazeera (2026-03-14): US strikes hit 90+ military targets on Kharg Island but deliberately spared oil and gas infrastructure.
Axios (2026-04-06): US, Iran mediators discussing potential 45-day ceasefire — ceasefire negotiations actively underway.
CNN (2026-03-26): Iran building up defenses around Kharg; experts warn ground operation extremely risky due to 21-mile proximity to mainland.
War on the Rocks (2026-04): Military analysts argue hitting oil terminal strategically counterproductive, would push oil past $150.
CNBC (2026-04-05): Oil at $110-114/bbl; Trump extended Strait deadline by 20 hours, suggesting negotiation room.