SIG-082
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-15
Market price
14%
at signal
Our estimate
7%
calibrated
Gap
+7.5pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-04-15 close
Evidence
- Trump said '2-3 more weeks' on April 1 (Military.com, Time) — earliest end date is April 15, but that's the optimistic boundary.
- April 3-5: Trump ESCALATED, not de-escalated — threatened to destroy bridges, power plants, and send Iran to 'stone age' (CNBC).
- F-15E shot down April 3, Delta Force/SEAL rescue op April 5 — active combat operations intensifying, not winding down.
- Pentagon deploying MORE troops: 2,000 marines from 31st MEU arrived, 2,500 from 11th MEU incoming, 82nd Airborne staged (CNN).
- Strait of Hormuz still 90%+ blocked. Iran demands 'full compensation' before reopening — no diplomatic off-ramp visible.