SIG-081
geopolitics
NOT_PUBLISHED
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
11%
at signal
Our estimate
3%
calibrated
Gap
+8.0pp
market vs ours
Status
NOT_PUBLISHED
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded as Supreme Leader on March 3 via Assembly of Experts vote. FM confirmed he is alive and in 'good health' (April 2026).
- Al Jazeera analysis (April 1): 'Mojtaba Khamenei's rumoured injury or death won't change Iran's trajectory' — power structure is institutional, not personal.
- IRGC consolidation is structural: the regime of securitised rule exceeds any one successor (Al Jazeera, Foreign Affairs analyses).
- Historical base rate: air campaigns alone have NEVER toppled a regime (Iraq 1991, Serbia 1999, Libya required ground forces and took 7 months).
- Rally-around-the-flag effect documented in all modern air campaigns — external bombing unites populations behind leadership.