SIG-079
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-30
Market price
30%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+11.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-30 close
Evidence
- Iran FM Araghchi denied negotiations: 'no truth to US-Iranian negotiations' (Al Jazeera, March 31)
- Iran rejected 15-point peace proposal as 'one-sided and unfair', demanding reparations and Hormuz sovereignty (Time, March 25)
- Oman mediation trust broken — both prior Oman-mediated talks ended with surprise US-Israel strikes (Middle East Institute)
- Active escalation: Iranian missile hit Haifa residential building killing 2 (Al Jazeera, April 6)
- Diplomatic efforts facing 'mounting distrust, conflicting goals and a lack of credible intermediaries'
Counter-evidence
- However, Axios reports (April 6) that US and Iran mediators are actively discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire — if talks gain traction, an in-person meeting before April 30 is not impossible.