SIG-078
geopolitics
PENDING
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
20%
calibrated
Gap
+13.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Military.com (2026-01-06): 32 Cuban officers killed in US strike on Venezuela — US targeted Venezuelan infrastructure, not Cuba directly
- Pentagon/SOUTHCOM (March 2026): General Francis Donovan told lawmakers troops NOT rehearsing for Cuba invasion; focus on embassy protection and Guantanamo defense
- Al Jazeera (2026-03-22): Cuba says 'ready for any attack' but diplomatic talks with US underway since March 13 on oil blockade
- Historical base rate: US has not struck Cuban territory since 1961 Bay of Pigs — 65 years without a direct military strike
- US military overextended with Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, 6+ weeks ongoing); SOUTHCOM resources secondary to CENTCOM priorities
Counter-evidence
- Trump said 'Cuba is next' after Venezuela intervention (March 27 speech)
- US oil blockade on Cuba ongoing since February 2026
- Pentagon described Latin America operations as 'just the beginning' (The Intercept, March 23)
- Cuba has no significant air defense or deterrence capability
- 32 Cuban officers already killed in Venezuela strike — precedent for targeting Cuban military personnel