SIG-073
geopolitics
PENDING
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
40%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+21.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- US National Intelligence Council assessment (Fortune, March 9 2026): 'Neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed'
- New Lines Institute analysis: 'Airstrikes alone unlikely to prompt regime change in Iran' — historical base rate: air campaigns have NEVER toppled a government alone (Iraq 1991, Serbia 1999, etc.)
- Ali Khamenei killed Feb 28 in opening strikes, but Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded smoothly — proving regime institutional resilience and continuity of power
- Royal Aeronautical Society analysis questions air campaign endgame; Iran maintains significant missile capability per US intelligence (CNN, April 2)
- Rally-around-the-flag effect documented across all modern air campaigns — external bombing tends to unite populations behind leadership, not topple them
Counter-evidence
- War ongoing 6 weeks with heavy sustained bombardment of military, nuclear, and economic targets
- Ali Khamenei assassination shows vulnerability at top of regime
- Iran described as 'hollow kleptocracy' with history of internal dissent (2022 protests, millions participated)
- Economic devastation from combined war + sanctions + Hormuz closure could strain regime legitimacy