SIG-072 geopolitics PENDING

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-31

Market price

30%

at signal

Our estimate

11%

calibrated

Gap

+19.5pp

market vs ours

Status

PENDING

2026-05-31 close

Market price history

Evidence

Anadolu Agency April 2 2026: More ships pass through Hormuz but traffic remains far below normal — only 16 vessels on April 1 vs ~138 pre-war daily average
Bloomberg April 2 2026: Ships using permission-based Larak Island corridor controlled by Iran; only select countries (China, Russia, India, etc.) granted access
Townhall April 3 2026: Iran ceasefire talks imploded; Iranians rejected ALL US demands — no path to reopening strait without diplomatic breakthrough
IMF Portwatch resolution threshold requires 7-day moving average ≥60 transit calls; current level (~16/day) is only 27% of threshold