SIG-068
geopolitics
LOSS
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-15 · Resolved 2026-04-28
Market price
28%
at signal
Our estimate
8%
calibrated
Gap
+19.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-04-28
Market price history
Evidence
- Resolution requires 14 consecutive days without military action before May 15 — fighting must stop by May 1 at latest
- Pentagon preparing 'weeks of ground operations' starting mid-April (WaPo March 28, Al Jazeera March 29)
- 4,500+ Marines (31st & 11th MEUs) and 82nd Airborne deploying to region; ground action timeline 'mid-April' earliest
- Iran ceasefire talks at total dead end — Iran rejected 48h ceasefire, refuses to meet US in Islamabad (WSJ April 3)
- Iran's maximalist demands: reparations, US withdrawal from ME bases, guarantee of no future attacks (CNBC April 1)
Counter-evidence
- Trump claimed objectives 'nearing completion' — could declare unilateral mission accomplished
- Domestic US political pressure and $112/bbl oil create incentive to find off-ramp
- Trump-Xi summit could produce Chinese pressure on Iran