SIG-067
geopolitics
LOSS
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30 · Resolved 2026-05-01
Market price
69%
at signal
Our estimate
55%
calibrated
Gap
+14.0pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-05-01
Market price history
Evidence
- CNBC April 6 2026: US and Iran received Pakistani-brokered ceasefire framework, but Iran rejected any immediate move to reopen Strait of Hormuz — the US core demand
- NBC News April 6 2026: 45-day ceasefire plan proposed by Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish envoys — but Iran FM Araghchi says no negotiation is happening
- Al Jazeera April 4 2026: Trump gave Iran 48-hour ultimatum (expired), then extended deadline again — pattern of moving goalposts
- NPR April 6 2026: Iran pushes back against Trump deadline; FM says Tehran seeks full end to war, not just ceasefire — fundamental gap in positions
Counter-evidence
- Trump told Fox News April 5 there is a good chance of a deal by April 6 — claims backdoor negotiations ongoing
- Pakistani-brokered 45-day ceasefire plan exists and was received by both sides — framework at least exists
- Trump has political incentive to declare victory and has repeatedly claimed war will end shortly