SIG-066
geopolitics
WIN
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-30 · Resolved 2026-05-01
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
22%
calibrated
Gap
+11.5pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-05-01
Market price history
Evidence
- Townhall April 3 2026: Iran ceasefire talks have imploded — Iranians rejected ALL US demands including 48-hour ceasefire proposal
- Times of Israel April 3 2026: Regional mediation effort to broker ceasefire has reportedly hit dead end
- NPR April 3 2026: Iran hit Gulf refineries, 2 US planes downed in war's 5th week — active combat ongoing on both sides
- CNBC April 1 2026: Trump says war nearing completion but simultaneously promises extremely hard strikes in coming weeks