SIG-065
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
70%
at signal
Our estimate
55%
calibrated
Gap
+14.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-12-31 close
Evidence
- Day 35: ceasefire talks dead, ground ops preparing, F-15 shot down (April 3-4 reporting)
- Iran mountainous terrain + 88M population — no quick resolution possible
- Strait of Hormuz closure driving oil >108/bbl — economic pressure not yet producing talks
- No comparable US conflict with state of Iran size reached formal ceasefire within 10 months
- Trump admin war objectives open-ended — no clear achievable termination criteria