SIG-064
geopolitics
LOSS
US × Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
46%
at signal
Our estimate
30%
calibrated
Gap
+16.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-06-30 close
Evidence
- Pentagon preparing weeks of ground ops in Iran (Al Jazeera, April 2)
- Ceasefire talks at standstill, no diplomatic summit scheduled (Jerusalem Post, April 2)
- Iran demands guaranteed permanent ceasefire — maximalist position (CNBC, April 1)
- Two US warplanes downed April 3, war intensifying on day 35 (Washington Post)
- Historical: US-Iraq 2003 no formal ceasefire for years despite 42-day combat phase; Iran is more complex