SIG-063
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-05-31
Market price
34%
at signal
Our estimate
18%
calibrated
Gap
+16.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-05-31 close
Evidence
- Pentagon readies for weeks of US ground operations in Iran (Al Jazeera, April 2)
- US-Iran ceasefire talks at standstill — Iran refuses to meet US in Islamabad (Jerusalem Post, April 2)
- Iran denies requesting ceasefire — both sides hardening (Al Jazeera, April 1)
- F-15E shot down April 3, rescue helicopters hit — day 35 escalation (NBC/Military Times)
- Historical: median 4.5 months to ceasefire in comparable US air-to-ground campaigns