SIG-062
geopolitics
LOSS
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-06-30
Market price
18%
at signal
Our estimate
7%
calibrated
Gap
+10.5pp
market vs ours
Status
LOSS
2026-06-30 close
Evidence
- Trump: war will last 2–3 more weeks with 'extremely hard' striking (CNBC April 2, 2026)
- Iran Foreign Minister: 'At present there is no negotiation' (Al Jazeera April 2, 2026)
- US-Israeli strike destroyed Iran's B1 bridge (Karaj); Iran vowed retaliation (CNN/NPR April 3, 2026)
- WTI at $111.54 (May), only 7.6% from $120 trigger; Brent $109.03
- Oil +11% in one day, +60% in March (biggest since 1988)