SIG-061
politics
PENDING
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
12%
at signal
Our estimate
3%
calibrated
Gap
+9.0pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Republicans control House 220-215 through Jan 3, 2027
- Zero Republican co-sponsors on impeachment resolutions
- New Congress from 2026 midterms not sworn in until Jan 3, 2027 — after deadline
- Democratic leadership steering away from impeachment for midterm messaging