SIG-060
geopolitics
PENDING
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
16%
at signal
Our estimate
7%
calibrated
Gap
+9.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Term ends 2028; no constitutional removal mechanism without his consent
- Despite mass protests post-Imamoglu arrest, Erdogan remains in power one year later
- Controls military, judiciary, media; opposition jailed
- Early elections require his consent; base rate for authoritarian removal ~5-7%