SIG-059
politics
PENDING
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-04-12
Market price
66%
at signal
Our estimate
82%
calibrated
Gap
+15.5pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-04-12 close
Market price history
Evidence
- Euronews (2026-04-01): TISZA projected 129 seats vs Fidesz 64
- Bloomberg (2026-04-01): Opposition poll surge shows Orbán faces election loss
- PolitPro: TISZA 49.6% vs Fidesz 39.6%
- US News (2026-04-01): TISZA widening lead over Orbán's Fidesz