SIG-058 politics WIN

Will TISZA win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-04-12

Market price

70%

at signal

Our estimate

82%

calibrated

Gap

+12.5pp

market vs ours

Status

WIN

2026-04-12 close

Evidence

Euronews (2026-04-01): TISZA 56% vs Fidesz 37% among decided voters, projected 129 seats
Bloomberg (2026-04-01): Opposition poll surge shows Orbán faces election loss
PolitPro trend: TISZA 49.6% vs Fidesz 39.6%
Medián Institute: TISZA 58% vs 35% among likely voters