SIG-057
politics
WIN
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Direction YES underpriced · Confidence HIGH · Closes 2026-12-31 · Resolved 2026-06-08
Market price
74%
at signal
Our estimate
95%
calibrated
Gap
+20.5pp
market vs ours
Status
WIN
2026-06-08
Market price history
Evidence
- Elections Alberta confirmed referendum date of October 19, 2026
- CBC: Referendum question on separation approved by Elections Alberta
- Bloomberg (2026-03-31): Separatists claim 177,732 signatures gathered
- APTN: Alberta announces referendum date with 9 questions including constitutional changes