SIG-052
geopolitics
PENDING
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Direction NO underpriced · Confidence MEDIUM · Closes 2026-12-31
Market price
10%
at signal
Our estimate
2%
calibrated
Gap
+7.9pp
market vs ours
Status
PENDING
2026-12-31 close
Market price history
Evidence
- US 2026 Annual Threat Assessment: China does NOT plan Taiwan invasion in 2027
- US intelligence consensus (March 2026): no immediate or near-term invasion plans
- China views invasion costs as too high in near term; prefers non-force unification strategy
- PLA logistics and training gaps assessed as substantial; full-scale amphibious invasion unlikely before 2027-2030
- China's stated strategic deadline 2049 for 'national rejuvenation' (100-year PRC anniversary) indicates no rush to 2026